Welcome back to the third and final part of this pre-season series as we discuss the schedule for the Timbers on a month-by-month basis. We’ll look at two paths in parallel – what our goal is for a “successful season” and what the stretch goal is for winning the Supporters’ Shield. In the end, we will look at the difference between and discuss where the Timbers are likely to finish at the end of the season.
April
The Timbers start off with an “away” match against Cascadian Rival Vancouver Whitecaps in Sandy, Utah, home of RSL. This is a tricky one – a derby match to the start of the season, and Vancouver always seems to be a continual “rebuilding year” each year. I think a point away to start the season is a good result, but it really could go either way at home date against Houston, who is definitely in rebuild mode after dealing Alberth Elis last season and Mauro Manotas to Tijuana in the offseason. They have instilled a familiar face in Maxi Urruti upfront and got USMNT Tim Parker at the back, but they should be looking at nothing less than three points for their home opener.
May
This month could be somewhat tricky – three matches away to Dallas, San Jose, and Philadelphia Union, while having a Seattle at home for matchday four while the Galaxy visit Providence Park on May 22nd. They’ll be vengeance in the air against Dallas, so I expect no less than a point on the road in the lone star state. Seattle without Jordan Morris and are evening discussing playing with two upfront, so I don’t know what to expect from Seattle in the early goings. I predict it will be a cagey match for both teams – a match would rather not lose than win. San Jose has the looks of being more competitive this year than last, and I think it will be our bogey team. I hate to say “must-win” for the Timbers at home against the Galaxy, but will be another team in rebuild and should be a target for the boys in green and gold. Our lone match away to the east coast against the Supporter Shield winners, whom most of us have been bullish on, on the pod – I expect nothing more than a respectable goose egg from this away day.
June
PTFC then does not play again until June 19th – a home match against SKC at home. Although SKC were conference winners and I do think highly of Peter Vermes, this is a very winnable match. Houston away midweek will be tough – and then a turnaround for the following weekend at home against a Minnesota I expect to see us flex our roster depth. However, I think this will be one of the very few losses at PP, as Adrian Heath’s side has seemed to have our number in the last few matches.
July
Another month with more road matches than home matches. New combers Austin FC have tried to create a “rivalry” more ludacris than San Jose have. I expect this to be a high-energy affair, but good tactical nuance should see us get a result in the lone star state. Two home matches in four days, in which PTFC will ride some positive energy and pick up back-to-back wins against Dallas and LAFC. Minnesota away and LA Galaxy I also don’t expect as much from, so a point between the two will disappointing but not too surprising.
August
August starts with one of our better home stands against San Jose, RSL, and a big derby match against Seattle – which then starts out the most challenging part of the season with SKC, Austin, and Seattle away. The key in this month will be capitalizing on home matches – the boys should be aiming for maximum points in these three matches but can live with seven from nine points. This road trip against these opponents comes at one of the hottest points of the season. SKC and Austin in between three days of each other will be challenging. And then the lone Seattle away match of the season could barely come at a worse time. I can’t bear to see us lose against Seattle, so I’m picking this as a lone point for this end-of-month stretch.
September
The brutal away stretch continues with predictably another sweltering away match at Houston away, followed up by the second away match against the Whitecaps (location TBD). Obviously, it’s hard to say what form our two opponents will be in this season, but expectations should be kept low for the end of this run. Treat any points as a “bonus.” However, in turn, the following four matches will be critical to PTFC’s positioning for the post-season. Home to Colorado, LAFC, and RSL, then away to LAFC presents immense opportunities for points. This is where I expect our roster depth (pending injuries and form) to flex and show its muscle. I think 10 from 12 is slightly a stretch but no unachievable. If we pick up some points on the road at the beginning of the month, then by the balance of MLS randomness, I’d expect to drop some points here. I think we will look back at September that defines the Timbers season – hopefully (as I predict) for good.
October
October will bring September’s momentum with it, with a reasonably good look at points with beatable opponents (on paper for March 2021) home and away. Inter Miami at home can be no less than three points at home. I don’t care how good of a second-year expansion side they may be; a cross-country trip for our opponents is still pretty challenging, especially for a team honestly trying to navigate a first “more normal season.” Galaxy away, I see as a momentum win as well as Vancouver at home. Colorado away feels like a game where a result is an ok result, and San Jose (as mentioned before) a bogey team for us this year and will take a point back to the bay area. This would set us up for taking 21 points in the course of ~6 weeks. That would be a massive but not unheard-of haul. With PTFC’s depth (again, pending injuries and form) will show its strength and will have every fan in the MLS looking at the Green and Gold for a deep playoff run.
November
With two matches left in the regular season, teams will be jockeying for position for the post-season. Considering our relatively good form in Sandy, Utah against RSL, I think they get the better of us in the second to last match of the season. This makes the final match of the season against Austin critical. We will get to end-of-season positioning in the next section – but I expect this result could see us go from hosting a home match to traveling away. It’s hard to say if Austin will be in the playoff picture, but I think this is a real must-win for the Timbers.
End of Season
The above results leave us with a 53 points 14-11-10 record – good enough for 3rd place in the West this season.
I think this will be more like a typical Timbers season, where we lean on our home form (12-4-1, 40 points) and have an acceptable but underwhelming amount of road points (2-7-8, 13 points). I would be surprised if we pick up more road points and fewer home points, but 53 points is a good goal for this Timbers season. With the schedule being very conference-heavy – I expect the West to be a bloodbath. This will look more like the 2017 season where the Timbers won the conference 53 points.
So, where does this leave us with the Supporters’ Shield Stretch Goal, you may ask? Well, a ways off. I work out to win the Supporter’s Shield, 71 points will be the number to aim for. Let’s take a look at the last few seasons.
2020 was excluded in this graph, but since 2017 that mark has been right around 70 points. That’s 2.05 points-per-game (ppg), which is the equivalency of winning every home match and drawing every away game. A challenging feat to accomplish, but looking at the 2020 ppg’s across both conferences, Philly won the Supporters’ Shield with 2.04 PPG, TFC second with 1.91, with SKC having 1.86. PTFC, as you may recall – was in the hunt until the last couple of games – finished with 1.7 PPG. With schedules becoming more conference-focused the previous few seasons, with the exception of a brilliant LAFC Team in 2019, the West is much more competitive than the East is at a disadvantage to have a team lift the shield.
Looking at the above plot, PTFC has hovered around the 50 point mark the last several seasons. However, it should be noted that 1.7 PPG from last year would have put the Team on ~58 points. But two of our “Away games” in which we took six points were against Vancouver at Providence Park, which could have been dropped away from home. A 53 point haul would be an excellent goal to have – and not to say that this Team isn’t achievable of being the best Team in the league, that doesn’t necessarily mean they will lift the shield. However, winning the conference is very attainable, and I think it will be won at or just below the 60 point mark. If the Timbers can finish top-3 and the Timbers get hot in September and October, they are definitely a dark horse for the MLS cup.
If you have read the series up to this point – I thank and applaud you. Feel free to leave comments and ask questions below, hit us up on Twitter at @AaronPoole85 or @OuterRoses, or leave a reply on Reddit. Thanks again, and onward rose city!