It’s 2021, blossoms are blossoming, and we are all getting tricked in a faux spring meaning….the Timbers are set to kick off a new season! This article will be the first of a three-part series outlining some player, positional unit, and team goals for our boys in green in gold as a measuring stick of success. In this first edition, we’ll cover Goalkeepers Defense and Central Midfield. Let’s get stuck in!
Goalkeepers
Goal 1: Having 10 clean sheets
As has been said on the pod, the Timbres defense was not great last year, but that’s not necessarily on the goalkeepers as Steve Clark stood on his head several times, amid making painful (largely avoidable) mistakes. For 28 games played across the regular season, MLS is Back and the playoffs, the Timbers had a measly five clean sheets. Since 2015, the Timbers have averaged only seven clean sheets per regular season, with a high in the 2015 championship-winning season on 12. It’s cliché, but defense does win you championships. Whereas the Timbers don’t have to have the most remarkable defensive season, keeping some vital clean sheets (Dallas playoffs, Seattle away part duex) would have had a significant impact on the season.
Goalkeeper – Player Goals
Goal 1: 3 appearances each (Jeff Atinella, Alijaz Ivacic)
Steve Clark is the number 1 de facto – and has rightfully earned that right the last two seasons. However, he’s got good competition behind in a veteran in Jeff Attinella and Alijaz Ivacic. I was a bit disappointed last year that we didn’t see more of either, but both had their bad moments in limited appearances in fairness. I’d like it to be a bit more competitive and see them get more MLS minutes in one way or another this season. I don’t expect them to win the #1 spot, but I wouldn’t be surprised if one of these two keepers comfortably holds that position if Steve Clark gets injuries or loses form badly.
Defensive Unit (Goalkeepers + Defenders)
Goal 1: 42 Goals against in regular season
What intriguing is how consistent the Timbers have been over the last several seasons, having being 48-53 goals per season. Due to the short season, extrapolating data to make it equivalent against 34 game season, the Timbers had ~48 goals conceded, at a rate of 1.42 goals per game. Going back to 2015, the Timbers were a lot tighter defensively, only allowing 39 goals. 42 seems a stretch, but not impossible. Plus, 42 – being an answer to everything in the universe obviously – seems a reasonable goal.
Goal 2: 5 Goals conceded in the last 15 minutes
Where can we save these goals? An excellent place to start would be the last 15 minutes of the game. It is well documented that PTFC gave up a staggering 15 goals in the previous 15 minutes of matches across all competitions last year. Over a 28 game season – that’s happening on average every other game. That’s appalling. However, for the first 75 minutes, you could make arguments that the Timbers backline was (mostly) in control. One could argue that they got the game started, as such teams would pile it on for the last 15 minutes and see more pressure than they did in the first 75. Regardless, this team needs to be able to deal with this either by tactics or personnel.
Goal 3: 15 Goals + Assists
It’s surprising how much our defense aids in goals and assists sometimes – and I think with the offseason additions of Jose Van Rankin and Claudio Bravo, we’ll see more of that this season. From what the FO has said about their talents and some of the YouTube highlight reels, I see two players who aren’t afraid to carry the ball, very athletic and don’t mind going WAY upfield. Add in a couple of goals and assists off-set pieces, and I think this is a reasonable goal this year.
Defense – Player Goals
Goal 1: 5 Goals + Assists Each (Claudio Bravo and Jose Van Rankin)
The big offseason signing news has been the acquisition of Claudio Bravo from Banfield in Argentina and Mexican International Jose Van Rankin from Chivas. Per the previous goal, I expect we’ll want to some results in this fashion. Villafana had 6 (1G + 5A) last season. Jorge Moreira and Villafana both had four back in 2019, and Alvas Powell in 2018 had 4 (2G + 2A), it’s a pretty fair barometer to measure so attacking support success. Both players will be new to the league, so I expect they will have their ups and downs throughout the season, but don’t be too surprised to knock this goal out of the park.
Central Midfield Unit (Defensive (6), Central Midfielders (8))
Because of our 4-2-3-1, I am going to treat the “2” as our number “six” and “eight”. However, writing specific quantitative stats as a unit, I think, is a little tricky because it may heavily rely on how the team sets up in both defense and attack. Thus, I’m going to skip right to player goals
Central Midfield – Player Goals
Goal 1: Don’t miss a Cascadia derby match due to either yellow card accumulation or straight red cards (Diego Chara, Eryk Williamson)
Yes, Diego, I’m looking at YOU. For a few seasons, Diego Chara had an uncanny ability to pick up yellow card suspensions for quite a few Seattle derbies – one I remember well in my memory for smashing a ball into the advertising boards in stoppage time. I have no problem with “Mr. Yellow Card” going into the book throughout the season (for brilliant tactical fouls or just letting his opponent know he’s there), but I don’t want him to miss these matches. Also, I don’t want to hear commentators say on TV for the millionth time, “ThE tImBeRs HaVe OnLy WoN Xx GaMeS sInCe 2012 WiThOuT DiEgO cHaRa”. Eryk Williamson picked up seven yellow cards himself last year and has become a crucial part of our midfield, so this goal also applies to him.
Goal 2: Eryk Williamson – 8 Goals + Assists
Eryk Williamson had a breakout year last season with three goals + 4 assists. However, as is common with young players, a sophomore slump season is typical – so this year, if Eryk Williamson can maintain that same level, I think that can be considered a success.
Goal 3: Cristhian Paredes – 1200 minutes, 4 goals + assists
This is a make-or-break year for Cristhian Paredes. In general, listeners on the pod know that, in general, we’ve bullish on Paredes in particular for the quality of his play and what he does off the ball to make magic happen. Having lost his starting spot to Eryk Williamson last year, his upward trajectory took an unexpected dip. In 2019 he had 4 goals, 2 assists over1,647 minutes and in – 2018 1 goal, 2 assists 1,407 minutes. However, in 2020, 0 goals and assists 823 minutes – and all that great “quality” that was aforementioned to in previous years – was rarely on display in those 823 minutes.
These stats will essentially play out on both the performance and health of Diego Chara and Eryk Williamson and Renzo Zambrano, Bill Tulioma, and even Andy Polo. Although I prefer him as an “Eight,” Paredes can slot in nicely as a “six” when needed. It could even be the future of this midfield after (dare I say) post-Deigo Chara, is a Williamson-Paredes Six-Eight partnership or a reversion to classic Chara-Johnson Double pivot from 2013 and 2014. But “if” Paredes does get his minutes at the Eight this year, chipping in 4 goals + assists would help get this young player (he’s only 22) back on track to fulfill his full potential.